Betfair Cash Out Focus: Is Spurs vs Chelsea A Tactical Or Personal Battle?
With the Premier League now firmly settled into its 2013/14 rhythm (one which has worryingly delivered not many goals but lots of quality defensive shape) Spurs hostChelsea this Saturday lunchtime in a game which is whetting appetite from all types on fans simply because it has so many fascinating facets.
Firstly and most importantly, it’s a battle between second and third in the Premier League. Chelsea need to win to secure more authority in a league where besides an astonishing first half against Hull they have looked remarkably unlike title contenders. Spurs are enjoying a great start to the year, winning four out of five games and only conceding one goal; given their entirely new forward line it will be interesting to see how their can prepare when Soldado starts getting the ball in good goal-scoring positions more often.
Added to this is the obvious London derby element, the Lilywhites have a terrible record against Chelsea, winning just three of their 42 Premier League encounters despite the North London club’s recent overhauling of the Blues in terms of league position in the 11/12 campaign.
Overshadowing all of this though is the extremely sensationalised meeting between Andre Villas-Boas and Jose Mourinho. The 35 year-old Spurs man worked extensively with two-time Champions League winner Mourinho and has effectively become the long-term replacement to AVB at the club following the former Academia manager’s tumultuous reign.
Given these managers’ history and notorious emphasis on tactical set-up, it promises to be an extremely interesting match-up. Villas-Boas will be desperate to prove himself with a huge scalp in front of the White Hart Lane faithful and will no doubt call upon a lot of the experience he has gained from “The Happy One” during their time together at Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan. One aspect of Jose’s management he hasn’t been able to quite replicate yet is the “home fortress” ideology which makes Mourinho so popular with fans.
Over his entire career so far, Mourinho has only lost four home league games out of 217, losing on average only 1.84% of the time. By comparison, Villas-Boas’ has lost 16.7% of his home league games despite an unbeaten home season at Porto in 2010-11. To give these statistics a bit of context, Sir Alex Ferguson lost 10% of his home league games during his incredibly successful Manchester United tenure, rendering AVB’s rate not too shameful and Mourinho’s utterly ridiculous.
MOURINHO HAS EVER ONLY LOST FOUR HOME LEAGUE GAMES OUT OF 217, LOSING ON AVERAGE ONLY 1.84% OF THE TIME.
Another key aspect of Jose’s management over the years has been his ability to get his teams to grind out victories and seal positive results from winning positions, this particular type of tactical ability makes Chelsea and interesting prospect when considering whether or not you should Cash Out using the Betfair app.
To look at this, we need some data on how Chelsea and Spurs have recently performed when leading and drawing. How do they lose their games? Is it a bottle-job or do they get unlucky? How reliable is your bet and how long can you wait before cutting your losses?
We’ve had a look at what happened when Chelsea and Spurs lost points last season, and how this might influence your decision to wait, or to Cash Out.
Firstly – we’ve had a look at when Spurs and Chelsea lost games from winning positions. Last season Spurs lost five games from winning situations, whereas Chelsea only lost two once they took the lead. Interestingly enough, Spurs surrendered their leads and lost to ‘top seven’ teams such as Chelsea, Man City, & Everton. Chelsea let leads slip and ended up losing against more mid-table opposition in West Ham & Newcastle.
In the above games, Spurs let their opponents have (on average) 5.2 shots a game after taking the lead, of which three were on target. Chelsea allowed West Ham and Newcastle to take on average eight shots a game after taking the lead, of which six were on target. This points to a counter-intuitive laxity from the West London club.
Furthermore – When Spurs let leads disintegrate into losses they never had more than 49% possession and averaged a measly 45% ownership of the ball. Chelsea averaged 54.5% – but couldn’t do anything with it, other teams were simply far more incisive. For example, West Ham scored twice out from just nine shots (excluding blocked) after Chelsea went in front at Upton Park – Chelsea couldn’t score from 12 attempts and the game ended up being 3-1 to West Ham.
If we look at where Spurs and Chelsea let leads slip into drawing positions, Chelsea were much more frequent offenders allowing it to occur on six occasions last season, compared to just thrice for Spurs. During these game states though, Spurs only let an average of three shots on their goal, with Chelsea permitting 4.2.
Spurs let leads turn into draws against West Brom, Norwich and Everton, whereas Chelsea did so against Liverpool (twice), Spurs (twice), Reading and Southampton.
So overall Spurs and Chelsea have swapped winning positions for either drawing or losing ones on eight occasions each – but Spurs generally against better opposition. In addition, Spurs are more likely to fully self-destruct and lose all three points.
Based on this data, If Spurs do take the lead it should be very tempting to Cash Out – especially if Chelsea start to dominate possession. If Chelsea take the lead I would be less tempted to Cash Out – they just don’t tend to drop points if they take the lead in big games.
One senses that the game is more important for AVB on a personal level than it is for Mourinho but the casual resilience shown by the Blues against Fulham and the daunting back five making the short trip should make everyone think twice before getting out early if they're banking on Mou's charges.
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